Bitcoin don’t give up! – analysis of the course 25 June and forecasts

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Bitcoin has recovered after falling to $5777, the lowest level in 2018. Buyers returned to the market and again raised the cryptocurrency rate above a critical point of$6000. Experts believe this decline is normal and not to panic suggest.

Compared to last year, the cryptocurrency is 140% more expensive but lovers of short term trades is not comforting. Known captainvalor Brian Kelly said that although the fall is painful, but for the cryptocurrency market is the norm. “The beginning of a bearish trend does not mean to bury bitcoin, “added Kelly. He drew the attention of cryptoendoliths on the following factors:

  • History. The same pattern has occurred in previous years, but this did not prevent bitcoin to reach new levels. Kelly said he expects the change the fall of bitcoin by intensive growth.
  • Exchange. Increasingly there are news about hacking cryptocurrency exchanges, they also affect the rate, because investors start to think that their assets are poorly protected. Japanese financial services Agency has started reviewing the exchanges to enhance their reliability. Kelly thinks that the leadership of the other exchangers will also take care of security.

Interesting, but about the “death” of the first cryptocurrency to be announced 315 times. This year alone, 69 times bitcoin was declared dead asset.

The technical picture

The currency pair BTC / USD is trading in a descending channel, strong resistance is waiting for bitcoin at the level of $6400. If the bulls manage to overcome this obstacle, first of the cryptocurrency will grow to $6700. The continued fall would lead to a retest of at least $5800. The RSI indicates oversold, bulls may take control of the market. Ichimoku confirms the continuation of the downtrend, bitcoin is trading below the cloud. The market capitalization of bitcoin has dropped to $105 billion.

Previously on this topic in the news:

15.06.2018: Why falling bitcoin? – analysis of Tom Lee

Tom Lee, chief analyst and founder of Fundstrat announced its version why bitcoin is falling. Last month, the cryptocurrency has lost almost 30% of the cost, and for the current year – almost 65%.

In his report, Tom Lee explained that the price decline of bitcoin is the result of the expiry of futures contracts on the futures. In December 2017 on the stock exchanges and the CME the CBOE began offering futures contracts for bitcoin. After analyzing the situation on the market, you have come to the conclusion that each time, shortly before the expiration date of the futures began the collapse of the bitcoin. The founder of Fundstrat commented: “In connection with the expiration of futures the price of bitcoin changes dramatically. We have collected some data and it is very similar to the truth. 10 days before the expiration of the contracts the first cryptocurrency falling by about 18%, and usually returns to the same position for 6-7 days“. Lee explained that the holders can sell large stocks of bitcoin average price, as the contracts near completion, flooding the market.

Lee also noted that this year decreased the number of investments in the cryptocurrency. The taxation of digital asset tax, tighter regulation, allegations of price manipulation in the market – these factors significantly affect the trading volume. If If was not mistaken in his forecast, for 6-7 days, bitcoins should increase again. Previously, he predicted that before the end of the year the digital asset will be worth $25 000.

Trade Commission commodity futures U.S. (CFTC) has started research activities 4 crypto-currency exchanges: Bitstamp, Coinbase, and Kraken itBit – they provide data for CME Group. CFTC investigates, involved platform to the manipulation of prices in the cryptocurrency market after the launch of futures.

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21.05.2018: 5 factors that affect the price of bitcoin

The price of bitcoin has always had tremendous volatility. 2 months of 2017, the rate has increased by 223%, and just as easily fell by 60% in January-February 2018. What factors provoke the UPS and downs of the digital currency, and affect its value?

5 factors affecting the price of bitcoin:

  • Supply and demand. Like any currency, bitcoin is affected by supply and demand. Mining bitcoins is similar to gold mining. Gold supplies are limited: to bring it to market, people need to get it. Also with hashing: the more people want to get bitcoin (and at the moment produced 17 million coins) – the higher its price.
  • Media. Fiat currency is less influenced by newsthan cryptocurrency. Positive news contributes to higher prices, the negative can derail the course. Stores that accept cryptocurrency as payment, companies that adopt the bitcoin system known investors who believe in digital assets – such news is going to benefit and enhance the credibility of virtual money. For example, the operator BitPay recently announced that it will be possible to pay taxes in Bitcoin.
  • The policy changes. Bitcoin is not controlled by the government and financial institutions – that’s why people paid attention to it. However, an official ban of the use of cryptocurrency (Pakistan, Kazakhstan, China, India and other countries) contribute to the depreciation.
  • State regulation. Decision regulating the use of digital currency can cause major fluctuations. For example, when Japan has recognized bitcoin as legal tender, the price of the asset began to grow rapidly. While the official means of payment bitcoin recognized a few, mostly the government equates it to the property.
  • Change the rules of the system. We will focus on hardforce – branches from the already existing cryptocurrency. There is a new currency, with similar characteristics, but working by different rules. Typically, the hard forks , the demand for bitcoin increases.
  • Experts believe that due to the fact that a reduced amount of bitcoins will continue to grow demand for them. Many predict that by the end of 2018, the first cryptocurrency would cost $20 000.

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    28.04.2018: the Three main directions of development of bitcoin

    Crypto enthusiast Nick Szabo has published in his Twitter the 3 main, in his opinion, the directions that are necessary to develop the field of cryptocurrencies in the near future.

    The most important development of cryptocurrencies over the next few years:

    • More secure storage (key management);
    • Decentralized exchanges;
    • Make the second level more friendly to the user, especially through automatic routing, while not sacrificing the minimization of trust

    He commented on these provisions as follows. In his opinion, the keys should be maintained throughout a person’s life and can be inherited, and needs to be found solutions for their wider use.

    Regarding the decentralization of exchanges, Nick Szabo, believes that Bitcoin is the most secure financial network on the planet. But peripheral companies are among the most unsafe.

    His words are confirmed by the recent events on the next breaking of the exchange and cryptocell.

    As regards the third item, first of all, he meant “add-on” Lightning Network in the bitcoin blockchain, which has undoubted advantages (fast transactions with minimal fees), but it requires technical expertise that deters potential users.

    Previously, Nick Sabor criticized by numerous experts and analysts who have a negative attitude towards cryptocurrencies not understanding their essence and hang different labels, like “biggest bubble” and the next Tulip mania.

    He is confident that by giving such a cliche, such experts oppose the new asset by inertia, because they are too lazy to understand the nuances of the functioning of the cryptocurrency market.

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