Why falling bitcoin? – analysis of Tom Lee
Tom Lee, chief analyst and founder of Fundstrat announced its version why bitcoin is falling. Last month, the cryptocurrency has lost almost 30% of the cost, and for the current year – almost 65%.
In his report, Tom Lee explained that the price decline of bitcoin is the result of the expiry of futures contracts on the futures. In December 2017 on the stock exchanges and the CME the CBOE began offering futures contracts for bitcoin. After analyzing the situation on the market, you have come to the conclusion that each time, shortly before the expiration date of the futures began the collapse of the bitcoin. The founder of Fundstrat commented: “In connection with the expiration of futures the price of bitcoin changes dramatically. We have collected some data and it is very similar to the truth. 10 days before the expiration of the contracts the first cryptocurrency falling by about 18%, and usually returns to the same position for 6-7 days“. Lee explained that the holders can sell large stocks of bitcoin average price, as the contracts near completion, flooding the market.
Lee also noted that this year decreased the number of investments in the cryptocurrency. The taxation of digital asset tax, tighter regulation, allegations of price manipulation in the market – these factors significantly affect the trading volume. If If was not mistaken in his forecast, for 6-7 days, bitcoins should increase again. Previously, he predicted that before the end of the year the digital asset will be worth $25 000.
Trade Commission commodity futures U.S. (CFTC) has started research activities 4 crypto-currency exchanges: Bitstamp, Coinbase, and Kraken itBit – they provide data for CME Group. CFTC investigates, involved platform to the manipulation of prices in the cryptocurrency market after the launch of futures.
Previously on this topic in the news:
15.06.2018: the Fall of bitcoin can be renewed – analysis of rate for 15 June, and forecasts
Bitcoin per day was up 2% and trading at $6500-6600. Other cryptocurrency is also slowly increasing in price, but experts predict that recovery may be short-term, because consumer activity is decreasing.
The market capitalization of bitcoin is $113 billionper day, the cryptocurrency has added $2 billion. However, the positive news that has intensified bullish movement and has not appeared. For holders, the situation is negative, the first cryptocurrency almost every day sets a new record and close to the annual minimum.
The technical picture
Bitcoin managed to break the resistance of $6476 (50-day moving average), now she plays a supporting role. The recovery of the BTC / USD limited $6610 (100-day moving average). A break of this line and sustainable growth higher returns bitcoin on the position of $6700and then $7000. However, the MACD indicator indicates a continuing decline in (100-day moving below the 200-day). The gap between the slide increases the pressure on sale. RSI indicates oversold, bulls have a great chance to improve the course of bitcoin, but while trading volumes are quite low. Indicator Ichimoku indicates a continuation of the downward trend – the digital asset is trading below the cloud. The total market capitalization of crypto-currencies is $285 billion.
21.05.2018: bitcoin’s Rally is cancelled! Whether admitted his mistake – analysis course for may 21 and projections
Bitcoin is attempting to break resistance at $8500 and go up. During the day its value increased by 3%, but large-scale rally is out of the question. On the way to $9000 and above, there are a number of obstacles.
Positive sentiment returned to the cryptocurrency market after bitcoin pulled back from the level of $8000. On Sunday, the first cryptocurrency managed to break through the important resistance zone at the level of $8400created by the 50-day moving average. A breakthrough has intensified bullish momentum, and now the pair BTC / USD $8500 amid rising trading volumes.
Investors are deeply disappointed that the forecast Volumes about 2018 Consensus did not materialize. Even the fortune teller admitted his mistake, because despite the fact that participation in the conference hosted more than 9,000 attendees, and the event broke records for attendance, the exchange rate of bitcoin is not affected. Tom Lee stated that the rally had 3 conditions:
Progress on item 3 was not at all. The only cryptocurrency, which this week increased by 50%, was zcash for, but it is only with add it to the listing Gemini. Despite the error, it still expects that by the end of the year bitcoin will be worth $25 000.
The technical picture
While the bitcoin exchange rate is above the 100 and 200-day moving average. To maintain positive dynamics, the cryptocurrency should remain above the level of $8400. The growth potential is still limited to a level of $8600. As soon as digital currency strengthens above this line, it will be able to go to the next target – $8800. A break of $9000 is possible only when you activate a bullish movement. The RSI is in the neutral zone, so the potential for growth of bitcoin has.
27.04.2018: Whether it prefers to invest in Bitcoin, and not Bitcoin Cash
Founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors and captainvalor Tom Lee said that he prefers to invest in Bitcoin, and not Bitcoin Cash, considering the hype around the latest far-fetched and unsubstantiated.
Your decision Whether commented: “I don’t choose winners and losers. I think Bitcoin, Bitcoin and Cash have their advantages. But if I were investing new funds, it would have been more interested in buying something lagging, are able to attract capital, rather than potentially overbought currency“. Lee believes that Bitcoin Cash “overbought” on the background of future hard forks that increase the block size to 32 MB and will make improvements to the network.
According to Li, investors warm interest in Bitcoin Cash – this also caused sharp fluctuations. Not so long ago the Manager of the investment company VKSM Brian Kelly urged investors to buy Bitcoin Cash. He believes that the high volatility of altcoins will quickly earn money. Tom Lee is a longtime supporter of bitcoin and has previously stated that by the end of 2018, this cryptocurrency will come to a new level and will cost $25 000.