CNBC analyst Brian Kelly: Bitcoin ETF may be adjourned to February
August 23 in an interview to Fast Money on CNBC, a cryptanalyst Brian Kelly predicted that the approval of bitcoin ETF “most likely” in February 2019.
Forecast Kelly gaining popularity in connection with the refusal of the SEC of the USA to approve nine applications to the ETF from three applicants on August 22.
ETF is a type of mutual Fund that divides the property in the goods, a derivative financial instrument, index or basket of assets in the part. The Fund monitors the value of the underlying and traded on the stock exchanges, the shareholders are entitled to the possession of any profits.
ETF represent exchange-traded securities that require monitoring by state agencies, and current and potential regulatory status of a crypto— ETF remains uncertain and actively debated.
Kelly noted that although the SEC recently delayed its decision on bitcoin ETF for investment firms VanEck and company financial services SolidX until September, he actually has the ability to re-defer the final decision until at least Feb. Kelly suggests that the SEC is likely to be inclined to do so, as he has reason to do so.
First, Kelly pointed to the concern the SEC rejected all the bitcoin ETF, which “will not be able to resist fraudulent and manipulative action” a relatively small market for bitcoin derivatives and insufficiently regulated spot market of bitcoins. He argued the following:
When the SEC was talking about fraud and manipulation, it most was not to prevent them, and how they control it. Do they have arrangements with other exchanges [which are regulated at the global / national level] to control what is going on?
Then Kelly agreed with the SEC’s argument that the existing market for bitcoin futures “not Mature enough”, Recalling that the futures exchange was started only on major exchanges — the CBOE and CME. Also, according to Kelly, the futures market CME is growing fast, and most likely, we “will see a much better situation” in approving ETFs in 2019:
CME futures represent the interests of large holders. [As of] April, there was a big increase … about 85%. If we extrapolate this to February 2019, the market will significantly strengthen its position
Kelly also added that the recent initiative of the Intercontinental exchange (ICE) to establish a global ecosystem of regulated digital assets could further strengthen the spot and derivatives markets of cryptocurrencies, which will probably meet the requirements of SEC.
In conclusion, he made a sensational assumption that the SEC may review new wave rejected ETFs, especially considering the opinion of the Commissioner, Esther M. pierce, who decisively criticized the position of the SEC by the ETF.
As noted by Kelly, the positive “sentimental changes” suggest that we are “inching” towards adopting ETFs, and that “the market is not sold out” because of the recent news about their rejection. Although bitcoin is temporarily decreased in price due to the news on August 22, he quickly recovered to trade levels in recent weeks.