CoinMetrics: the volume of trading in bitcoin is not subject to seasonality

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Analytical resource CoinMetrics.io has conducted a study to determine whether there is any correlation between the dynamics of trading volume of bitcoin and the seasons. As a result, the experts came to the conclusion that the performance of the first cryptocurrency is not subject to seasonality.

First, here are the raw numbers on a formatted log view, because volumes are radically different between 2014 and 2018. Hmm… no obvious trend pic.twitter.com/bZdhEfwTKl

— CoinMetrics.io (@coinmetrics) October 28, 2018

In CoinMetrics estimated figures for 2014-2018 years, however, given the significant difference between the rally and the bear market for the past five years, to detect a clear trend initially failed.

Then, the analysts decided to convert the trading volume in percentage of the total capitalization of the asset and found that, on average, 2% [green curve] almost does not change depending on the month.

Now we’ve made the numbers comparable and we can take the average (green line above). Looks like there is no seasonality. Exchange volume averages about 2% of out bitcoins’s market cap with little month to month deviation.

— CoinMetrics.io (@coinmetrics) October 28, 2018

Earlier, the co-founder CoinMetrics.io Nick Carter proposed to abandon the market capitalization as an assessment tool total wealth is in bitcoin and introduce the concept of “realized capitalization,” which is based on aggregation UTXO [unspent outputs of transactions] with the price of bitcoin in their latest activity.

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