Cryptotrading the Cambrian period
The method of observation, underlying all the natural Sciences, allows us to conclude that a giant, heterogeneous mass of the earth’s crust form levels that have a natural
origin, and that the levels are properly arranged.
(Adam Sedgwick, the pioneer of the Cambrian period, 1835)
In 1720, Knight of the Garter Robert Walpole, with black eyebrows and a white wig, warned the deputies from the rostrum of the Parliament: “it is a vicious practice on the stock price, which distracts from national genius for trade and industry. It is able to bring gullible people to ruin with false hope for profit.” This speech not only did not prevent the first-ever joint trade boom, but he made the first prophet of trading before he became the first Prime Minister of great Britain.
In 2017 in August, I got on the Bittrex exchange, physically located in Seattle — home of Microsoft and Boeing. It is now Bittrex has been in decline lost the audience and was painted in dark colors, and then — in a symbolic seventeenth year “Bitra” was still on horseback, and fans of the cryptotrading dutifully endured her white, slow, and, indeed, quite suitable for the beginner interface.
It was a gold rush mining when gamers opened in his heart the hatred of the miners bought up all the cards in the world. It seemed a miracle that we finally have at their disposal devices that turn electricity into money, without any intermediate material products (if not to take into account side effects such as noise and heat). As a man, not inclined to linger in my life on anything, I abruptly evolved from a mining — by the observation of the price of mined coins — trading, which led me to the exchange.
Lord, all in blue lightning struck Bittrex 28 Feb 2018 23 hours 6 minutes 58 seconds Moscow time, the star of the cryptocurrency ZClassic sunk into hell, to never return: for half an hour the coin has lost 87% of value on a single large market were available for trading.
The crash is always preceded by a great success and ZClassic was no exception. Rhett Creighton, smiling American guy, one day found out that zcash for — one of the pillars of the modern world of the crypt is designed so that 20% of all mined coins in the world are automatically entered into the pockets of developers. Zcash for the source code is available on GitHub, and knowledge of rett in the C++ language was enough to find and delete the lines responsible for “tax genius”. The new fork was called “ZClassic” and began to live on Bittrex. But Creighton could not stop. He liked to do the forks. Previous developers naively believed that in order to create a new currency, you need to implement new technology in the code. “What kind of a narrowness of vision? thought Rhett. Instead of add the new to the old, just add old to the old!” So the idea was born to copulate ZClassic with the father of all things crypt — bitcoin, infecting him, his grandfather, zero knowledge about what address the payment went where he came from, and how much currency was translated (the technical term is “zk-SNARKs”; Snark is a monster, invented by Lewis Carroll).
The idea of this incest shocked the progressive mankind, it together began to buy ZClassic with the sole purpose to absolutely free an equivalent amount of private bitcoin (Bitcoin Private — the so-called product of sin) at the time of the fork.
The inquisitive reader already will have guessed that this moment came on February 28 (unit#511346 bitcoin). In the most enthusiastic, the most sparkling days of my life I will remember these tragic moments. History was made in my eyes. Coin flowed so rapidly that the startled web interface Bittrex do not have time to show me numbers as to not be able to sell the dying cryptocurrency poor traders as lightning fall price. Simultaneously it became known that the team of developers left ZClassic and in full force under the banner of private bitcoin (BTCP).
As epitaph: hope for BTCP was not justified. It was assumed that after the trading value of the coins will be not below $500. To facilitate flight team even expelled from the crew of his chief ideologue smiling Rhett Creighton. But something went wrong and the price to date is at the bottom, not daring to rise above $3.
At first glance it seems surprising that even two weeks before the disaster, many holders ZClassic began to get rid of the burden. Simple logic dictates that if you really got into the story with a fork, then have patience and get a free newborn coins. But it turned out that there were wise people who chose to lock in profits obtained on the growth of classics in waiting to fork. These people were right. Reader! Watch out forks, don’t fall for the promises of smiling people!
Or here’s another story. Yeah, same with morality. The temptation is staring at us from every angle. One of these temptations is called the “pump group”. In such groups do not write the Chrysostom, it has adopted a spy-Telegraph style: “Pampa 10 minutes. Time: 20:29 GMT. Traded in a couple BTC. The expected profit is at least 200-300%. Blanks for chat: XXX Coin is skyrocketing! XXX has already done x2. That news XXX, where such growth? Bought XXX and has earned 100%!” This one — day Ponzi scheme.
The organizer gathers several thousands of players at the beginning of the action declares the name of the coin XXX and all members of the team a small stakes buy XXX and make noise in chat rooms. The price starts to rise sharply. This is the pump (I have a suspicion that all the pampas are exclusively man-made origin and pre-planned).
Connect third parties (not members of the pump groups), find the pump and trying to “jump on the leaving train” by shopping already at a high price. If the action is successful, then within the hour the coin does “x” (as speculators call a multiple of profit), the organizer sells what they bought before the announcement of Pampa, and gets easy to get profit.
The next phase is panic selling: victims of the pampas, usually do not have time get rid of useless cryptocurrency (in the same way as fork, but of course not in such dramatic volumes) and out of the money. These victims include members of the pump group, which, as a rule, too do not manage to close the deal.
Never get involved in this adrenaline game: you will be not only with an almost guaranteed loss, but also with the burden of the moral responsibility involved in PAMP “sheep for shearing”. Incidentally, the tactic of “jump on the leaving train” is also detrimental to a beginner.
Of course, all newcomers dream of the “x’s”. Monitoring price movements in real time is fascinating when you know that every change is the cumulative effort of many thousands of people from all corners of the digital globe, who swarmed like lemmings (perhaps someone else remembers this game on the computer), drawn by the false hope of profit, as promised Robert Walpole. A trader wants to buy low, sell high, but most of the acts in exactly the opposite way, it is losing. In this game each you received profit means a loss for many lemmings.
Common sense dictates that price movement should be affected by two factors: noise, as a manifestation of the theory of probability, and personal views of each participant about what is cheap and what is expensive. But we are in a wonderful world where reason does not work. Results the total labor lemmings are subject objectively existing laws.
These laws are not as concrete as, for example, Newton’s laws, that is, there is no guarantee that once the open rule is always valid. But even with all these restrictions, the expression patterns in trading (be it technical analysis, technical analysis or analysis of the relationship of prices with trading volume— I mean VSA) seems a miracle. I apologize for the banality, but people differ from each other not only in appearance and geographical characteristics. Cultural, religious, moral, educational and financial differences is enormous! Moreover, every point in time every citizen of the civilized world is in a different mood and level of sanity. What force can force to fit into the framework of some sort of rules the combined efforts of so various and changeable individuals?
Whether it is a manifestation of the existence of God or proof that we live in a simulated universe, where the number of programs embedded in every subject, of course, not for me to judge. In my opinion, the fact that the laws of trading are so amazing that I find it easier to imagine that from tomorrow morning all of digital humanity will speak a single language.
Opposite the leaning tower of Pisa, over the Arno river is a monument of Fibonacci, whose books have taught math for 400 years (until the time of Descartes, that is, from the XIII to XVII century). Name called Fibonacci sequence of numbers, each of which is equal to the sum of the previous two. These figures might seem scholastic, if not one “but”: they suggest that our world is created according to a predetermined plan.
If the Fibonacci series to divide the greater number by the lesser, increase in numbers the result will tend to the Phi ratio, 1.618. Leonardo da Vinci, who was born 282 years later Fibonacci sang this factor, giving him the name “Golden section” (sectio aurea). The Golden ratio manifests itself in biology, music, fine art and architecture. Ring spiral seashell (appeared 540 million years ago) increase in proportion to this ratio. The location of the navel “David” by Michelangelo (1404) responds perfectly to the divine proportion. Music of the film “Battleship Potemkin” by Eisenstein (1925) follows this system of organic nature. We live in a world, generated by the Golden section.
A part of the world are trading, the basic law which States that the momentum of prices is always accompanied by a pullback and a reversal to continue movement in the direction of the impulse. Pivot point obeys the Fibonacci numbers is expressed with precision to the third sign, the main ones are of 0.382 and 0.618 is the rebound value usually corresponds to the 38.2% or 61.8% of the height of the pulse, or the average between the value of 50%.
The law rollback manifests itself even in such extreme cases as described above ZClassic the crash: rebounding from lower price points, the fallen coin has not risen, however, to a typical level of 0.382 (the impulse was far from typical), but clearly outlined the previous Fibonacci number — of 0.236, allowing an experienced trader to make two “x’s” on one transaction.
Thus, the graphics of modern crypto-currencies are on a par with snails navel “David” and “Potemkin” of Eisenstein. Speech of Robert Walpole and the British Company of the South seas was only an intermediate step. It all started with the Cambrian explosion.