Got off lightly: Why the bitcoin bubble did not burst, but blown away
Economist Joost van der Burgt of the National Bank of the Netherlands compared the price movement of bitcoin with a number of search queries in Google for cryptocurrencies. And what was the result? Almost perfect mutual correspondence to the moment until the price of bitcoin began to decline in early 2018.
Joost van der Burgt analyzed the relationship between search queries Google on bitcoin and its price. In a telephone conversation with CNBC he said:
Every time when bitcoin was in the media spotlight, whether in a positive or negative light, was increased.
The specialist also pointed to the fact that the correlation between Google queries about bitcoin and its price was “almost perfect” until the end of 2017. Van der Burgt considers that all changed with the launch of bitcoin futures:
I believe that the introduction of futures blew away the bitcoin bubble and prevented its complete rupture.
The results of the may study of Federal reserve Bank of San Francisco also showed that the decline in bitcoin prices was due to the launch of the futures markets.
Van der Burgt compared Google other popular assets such as gold, with their prices, but found no correlation. He said that awareness about investment could push prices to unprecedented heights:
If everywhere starts the hustle and bustle, no matter what the essence of the news… Everyone is afraid to miss something and hurry to grab your piece of the pie.
Historically this is called the phase of euphoria according to the financial instability hypothesis of Hyman Minsky, who outlined five stages of a bubble: shear, boom, euphoria, profit and panic. Van der Burgt believes that the price movement of bitcoin have clearly demonstrated the initial stages of a bubble, but it was “suppressed” before reaching the phase of panic.
Van der Burgt concludes:
This panic arose, all limited to the fright.