Newcent AG CEO Vladimir Smetanin and analyst Stanislav Savinov tell in his newspaper column “RBC-Crypto” about how it will evolve in the near future the network of the second capitalization of the cryptocurrencies and should we expect its growth rate
Vladimir Smetanin, CEO Newcent AG and analyst Stanislav Savinov in his newspaper column “RBC-Crypto” talk about the prospects of a decentralized Ethereum platform after hard forks.
The developers of ether it’s time to stop dancing penguins and get to work — before the conference Devcon4 left quite a bit. This time needs to be finalized to work on Constantinople, the next step in a series of Metropolis updates. The platform may receive a long-awaited increase in speed and reduction in the cost of transaction processing and greater scalability. The delay could give odds to the EOS, Tron, Tezos and a number of other “killers live”, which can drop ETH to the margins of evolution, and not to let him become a real world computer. In the aspect of investment the end of October will be crucial for the future of television will he be able to regain lost ground, or the most sagacious investors ultimately will bet on the competitors that will in the long term could give 1000x that stopped believing acne.
The ether is, in fact, two ways: either “stagnation” in the corridor of $150-400, or rocket, which will start in early 2019. According to Fundstrat Global, seven out of ten respondents institucionales will not surprise Renaissance of the stock market, if it coincides with the collapse of traditional assets. Until December on wall street expect the traditional “rally”, and then more stringent “clinch” the United States and China, which would be a “cakewalk” and forced to seek refuge in alternatives. Gold, bitcoin,… and the air has an excellent chance to get a piece of the pie. Its size will directly depend on the upcoming fork and how it will be perceived by the community. By the time the SEC is likely to give birth and be able to give the green light to one of the ETFs for BTC. And certainly it will be from Blackrock, who have rich experience in the promotion of their products — officials will not be able to ignore the success of the iShares line. Institutional investors and regulators in other countries will eventually receive a long-awaited go-ahead from the SEC, launching a second wave of adoption of scriptaction. Additional demand can give the CFTC, in the event the application is approved CBOE to launch futures on air. For whales, it would be logical to buy it, not “short”, as it was during the launch of the futures on BTC, when he was breaking records.
You can, of course, to wait on the stock market the end of winter, but it is better to be proactive. The lower limit of the range of fluctuation of the air was probably already reached the end of the summer. Panic selling of the organizers of the ICO (thanks EOS) in the past, confirmation can be found in the study from BitMEX. New crudely are not easy, with difficulty (in September charges fell by 90%, the data Autonomous Research). Investors suddenly realized that everywhere a Scam (namely 81%, before listing “live” only 8%, the third of which brought losses to the holders of tokens, the data Satis Group), but it’s for the best, since the negative Parallels with the ETH will now be held less often.
Market digital assets will soon be developed “rules of the game” (in the United States, introduced three bills and there was an influential group of lobbyists) and leadership Ethereum as the most popular platform for the ICO, will remain in the near future undiscussable. Dynamics Hasrat after the most drastic in the last year of decline was stabilized and moved to the growth, leaving the game in the most efficient miners. As in bitcoins in 2014-2015 here was probably determined by the “lower limit” production. Graph of the number of transactions in the blockchain repeated the lows of the year — according to Diar, the number of users DApps now more than twice less than in the beginning of the year (Oh, those chipofya “cryptococci”). However, the upcoming update should solve bottlenecks in the safety of smart contracts and their cost and processing speed. The community continues to grow the number of wallets has exceeded 44 million, the pioneer BTC — less 29 million, and this is very important.
After a 70% decline in prices since the beginning of the year, which was more painful than his “killers” (they fell by roughly one-third-half) from ETH, now is, how can be proponents of value investing, “margin of safety”. The main thing now is to acne and to adhere to the road map and in addition to the high intactivist demonstrated a commitment to the further evolution of their offspring. Upcoming innovations will be tested on a test network and in the main blockchain fork will occur according to expectations until the end of the year. So, what will change and what will it give?
The expected upgrade of Constantinople will be the second phase of hard forks Metropolis, in which among a number of improvements (EIP’s) is primarily to highlight the change of the algorithm of consensus on a hybrid Proof of Work/Proof of Stake. Will continue the transition to a “pure” Proof of Stake (Casper) in the next phase of code improvements Serenity. After the changes to confirm the transaction along with the traditional miners will be able to large holders of the second cryptocurrency, validators that can be lose in case of abuse of wagered investment (this reduces the probability of an attack by 51% and increases network security). For the technical realization will be reduced by the amount of reward for mining a block with 2 ETH 3 to ETH, and announced the launch of the so-called “bombs of complexity”, which gradually complicate the extraction of the ether and make it unprofitable (“ice age”), will be postponed for a year.
This, of course, not revolution and not the rate of those who were drawn in the imagination of cryptoendoliths when they heard about the alleged innovations. Developers are conservative and given the bitter experience of errors do not want to produce the crude product. However, to be disappointed is not worth it, because Constantinople will somehow mark a new stage, which will create a basis for qualitative improvement of the platform. Because c consensus algorithm Proof of Stake in addition to improved security comes low cost of transaction and decrease time to create new units. Will also be possible “common” sharding, which together with an additional second layer of Plasma, Raiden, who practiced in testnet, in order to increase scalability.
The concept sharding’and you can imagine the kind of work all the familiar client torrents: blockchain splits the nodes and transactions into smaller independent components; shards, each of which maintains its own transaction history and which processes only “your” transaction, thus relieving the network. Raiden is an analogue of the Lightning Network from Bitcoin ofcan-solution for carrying mnogomernyh and shareware payments. The latest version, µRaiden has tools for creating applications for decentralized services platform. In turn, Plasma is an alternative to Raiden and uses a series of smart contracts to create hierarchical trees Saidjanov. In other words, it is a series of contracts that perform independent calculations on the basis of their own set of rules and further transmit information back to the parent chain Ethereum. Sharding, which is an optimization of the main blockchain will become possible after completion of Constantinople. Other solutions independent from him and be added in one of the following forks.
The list of innovations this is not the end: in the last time there was a promising new development, in particular decisions on the basis of the Snark (transaction data are converted to constant “short proof”), which will enable us to reach a significant level of network bandwidth without the use of Plasma and Raiden. In addition, this technology will increase data privacy. Another route of evolution may be Turbo Geth, which will reduce the amount of stored history of all of the computing network by 80%, which will also increase its capacity.
Scalability is the Achilles heel of Ethereum, after the implementation of these decisions, hypothetically, will increase thousands of times that will make the platform suitable for widespread commercial use. Will be implemented plans Balerina to achieve the same throughput capabilities, as the Visa payment system, which processes 2000 transactions per second. Now live is able to “squeeze” a maximum of 25 bitcoins, while many of the “killers” in this respect has made great progress, for example in EOS, the number is 1,200, and TRON — 2000 transactions per second. After he compares with competitors, offering in addition a large number of operations working smart contracts and has vast experience of solving problems. Another problem, only this time safety related, so it can be solved by moving from Solidity to another programming language Viper with the introduction of formal options, error checking, and the development of a new standard ERC777. It will be compatible with all the familiar ERC20 and will get rid of the risk of loss of funds in the blockchain.
What are the output? Increased emissions of the esters will be offset by the reduction in rewards for each block (the developers were discussing a more radical decrease) and should not have a significant impact on pricing. If all this will entail the implementation of innovations that will enhance the security definition of consensus, smart contracts, will reduce the cost of their implementation, and increase network scalability. Exactly what should be implemented after Constantinople and “dopisivanje” the decisions that are currently being developed at test circuits.
The improvements will increase the loyalty of current users and attract new ones. It’s a community, its population and the degree of involvement in the creation of decentralized applications and their use ultimately will determine the fair value of any utility token as ether. Ethereum arose before the others and had a good margin of safety. The impending completion of the Metropolis with the finalization of a number of promising solutions will allow you to return started to melt the handicap. Oh, and then a possible breakout. By the time regulators in many countries will have an understanding of what the outline should take the ICO industry (in the EU according to the latest data, in particular the law should be made next year). Further work on ICO 2.0: Security Token Offering (the Location of the secure token), and Decentralized Autonomous Initial Coin Offering (DAICO) (Decentralized Autonomous public offering tokens) can make cryptoendoliths to remember what was on the stock market at the end of 2017 — the beginning of this. After all, nobody argues that the ICO format is the future. But that’s another story. Now it is necessary only to understand that the most likely other possibility to buy Ethereum for $200 +- would be no more.